I have no idea how it morphed into a 2 before, because i had it with the n the first time and i copy/pasted it. I also did not call anyone wrong in my initial post. I apologize, but i do tend to lose it a little when i'm called wrong without people thinking it through. My calculations i worked out fully were 100% correct for what i as calculating which turned out not to be the same thing ct was calculating. The semantic issue that caused all the confusion is that what exactly a drought is is not precisely defined. His definition for bag is the length of the interval between two consecutive Is. I calculated for a more general case, which i believed more useful, as i figured with bag, there are much more useful calculations that can be made if you have the knowledge for it, and provided the zero knowledge one. For memoryless, because games are finite, and there's no guarantee you will see that I before the game ends, i again used a different definition of drought, which yielded a simpler calculation. dividing by 7 does convert interval >=n to interval=n But the statement. appears to be complete nonsense to me. The probability that you will be starved of at least one piece is 100% for any interval less than 7 regardless of randomizer. And I don't see the usefulness of that calculation. Dividing that by 7 most certainly does not produce the probability for one specific piece.